For much of the past decade, Dubai’s off-plan market has been a residential story.
Developers have catered to global demand for apartments and villas, while commercial office stock has remained largely a leasing proposition, dominated by strata titled buildings in traditional freehold areas or single-owned buildings catering to multinational occupiers
But, over the past 12 months, a quiet shift has begun to take shape: commercial off-plan launches are returning to the market.
From virtually no new office sales activity 18 months ago, more than 10 commercial projects have launched in the past year, predominantly focused on offices. This activity remains small in absolute terms compared to residential volumes, but its re-emergence signals several underlying forces that are beginning to reshape part of Dubai’s office market.
At the core is pricing. Sustained rental growth across key submarkets, coupled with limited availability of high-quality space in central locations, has led some regional occupiers, primarily SMEs and professional firms, to explore ownership as a way to secure long-term cost control. For private investors who have built up substantial exposure to residential off-plan in recent years, these projects offer a way to diversify into commercial real estate, targeting capital preservation and perhaps appreciation or potential rental income upon completion.
The nature of these projects reflects this early-stage demand. Most launches have been concentrated in secondary and emerging locations - areas such as Arjan, Majan, and Motor City - where land costs and plot sizes allow smaller office buildings to be brought to market at pricing levels that remain accessible to construct and sell to private buyers. Structurally, these assets are typically entirely sold on a strata basis, often unit-by-unit or floor-by-floor, allowing developers to de-risk early in the development cycle.
As a sales model, it’s practical, but can present some challenges for long-term occupiers. For larger corporate tenants - both multinational and regional - the strata ownership model can be a challenge to navigate. Fragmented ownership complicates lease negotiations, service delivery, and future expansion. Most major occupiers continue to prefer single-owned buildings where long-term landlord control ensures consistency, operational flexibility, and aligned capital expenditure. Retailers remain firmly in the lease market, preserving capital for network expansion rather than ownership. The same holds true for global corporates, where real estate ownership typically sits outside core business strategy.
As these new office buildings deliver over the next 24 to 36 months, they will introduce fresh leasing inventory to the SME and mid-cap segment, particularly in locations that have historically lacked modern supply. However, they are unlikely to address the persistent gap in institutional-grade stock that exists across much of the market. Large-scale occupiers continue to face limited choice when seeking high-quality, single-owned office buildings in locations such as Business Bay and along Sheikh Zayed Road.
The solution is neither complicated nor new. Where developers have committed to build-to-lease models - taking the risk to deliver institutionally managed office assets - the market has responded. Aldar’s recently launched tower on Sheikh Zayed Road provides a clear example of how this model can be executed at scale, bringing much-needed depth to the city’s leasing market while creating assets that appeal equally to international occupiers and global capital.
For developers that are considering entry into the commercial market and who can manage the longer-term considerations, the recommendation is clear: build to lease, not to strata sell. The leasing market remains undersupplied in several core and emerging corridors, particularly for large floorplate, Grade A office product built to international standards, which in turn attracts the right type of tenants. Strata sales offer short-term de-risking, but consolidated ownership will ultimately generate stronger leasing performance, higher rental stability, and institutional exit options.
Dubai’s commercial off-plan cycle is still at an early stage, but its reappearance is an indicator of evolving market confidence. For investors and developers alike, the long-term opportunity will sit not in simply adding supply, but in delivering the kind of product that global occupiers and capital have consistently shown they are prepared to back.
